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Dravograd vs Dobrovce — 3. SNL - East 2020

Dravograd
Dravograd
FT
4 – 3
Dobrovce
Dobrovce
9/26/20203. SNL - East3. SNL - East · East - 6Športni center Dravograd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dravograd56%
×Draw19%
Dobrovce24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dravograd
2.48
Dobrovce
1.60

Dravograd creates 55% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 20 away

creates per match

Dravograd
2.50
Dobrovce
0.95

allows per match

Dravograd
2.25
Dobrovce
2.45

finishing

Dravograd+0.00on par
Dobrovce+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dravograd ↓

Dobrovce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Dravograd or draw
76%
Dravograd or Dobrovce
81%
Draw or Dobrovce
44%

Winning margin

Dravograd wins by 2+
36%
Dobrovce wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dravograd 1+ goals
92%
Dravograd 2+ goals
70%
Dravograd 3+ goals
44%
Dobrovce 1+ goals
80%
Dobrovce 2+ goals
47%
Dobrovce 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Dravograd (draw refunded)
70%
Dobrovce (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dravograd at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Dobrovce away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dravograd attack 2.50 + Dobrovce defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.48

Dobrovce attack 0.95 + Dravograd defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dravograd scores more
56%
level
19%
Dobrovce scores more
24%

Dravograd at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dravograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dravograd vs Dobrovce

Dravograd beat Dobrovce 4-3 in 3. SNL - East on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Športni center Dravograd in Dravograd.