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Dravograd vs Bistrica — 3. SNL - East 2020

Dravograd
Dravograd
FT
1 – 2
Bistrica
Bistrica
9/12/20203. SNL - East3. SNL - East · East - 4Športni center Dravograd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dravograd22%
×Draw18%
Bistrica59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dravograd
1.63
Bistrica
2.69

Bistrica creates 65% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dravograd
2.50
Bistrica
3.13

allows per match

Dravograd
2.25
Bistrica
0.75

finishing

Dravograd+0.00on par
Bistrica+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dravograd ↓

Bistrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Dravograd or draw
41%
Dravograd or Bistrica
82%
Draw or Bistrica
78%

Winning margin

Dravograd wins by 2+
10%
Bistrica wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Dravograd 1+ goals
80%
Dravograd 2+ goals
48%
Dravograd 3+ goals
22%
Bistrica 1+ goals
93%
Bistrica 2+ goals
74%
Bistrica 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Dravograd (draw refunded)
27%
Bistrica (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dravograd at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Bistrica away — creates 3.13, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dravograd attack 2.50 + Bistrica defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Bistrica attack 3.13 + Dravograd defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dravograd scores more
22%
level
18%
Bistrica scores more
59%

Bistrica at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bistrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dravograd vs Bistrica

Bistrica beat Dravograd 2-1 in 3. SNL - East on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Športni center Dravograd in Dravograd.