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Dravinja vs Krka — 2. SNL 2019

Dravinja
Dravinja
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Krka
Krka
3/15/20252. SNL2. SNL · Round 19ŠRC Dobrava igrišče z UT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Dravinja35%
×Draw28%
Krka37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dravinja
1.12
Krka
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 93 away

creates per match

Dravinja
0.98
Krka
1.30

allows per match

Dravinja
1.04
Krka
1.26

finishing

Dravinja+0.00on par
Krka+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dravinja ↓

Krka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dravinja or draw
63%
Dravinja or Krka
72%
Draw or Krka
65%

Winning margin

Dravinja wins by 2+
14%
Krka wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dravinja 1+ goals
67%
Dravinja 2+ goals
31%
Dravinja 3+ goals
10%
Krka 1+ goals
69%
Krka 2+ goals
33%
Krka 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dravinja (draw refunded)
48%
Krka (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dravinja at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Krka away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.26 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dravinja attack 0.98 + Krka defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.12

Krka attack 1.30 + Dravinja defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dravinja scores more
35%
level
28%
Krka scores more
37%

Krka at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Krka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dravinja vs Krka

Dravinja and Krka drew 0-0 in 2. SNL on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at ŠRC Dobrava igrišče z UT in Slovenske Konjice.