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Dravinja vs Gorica — 2. SNL 2019

Dravinja
Dravinja
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Gorica
Gorica
10/12/20242. SNL2. SNL · Round 10Štadion Dobrava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Dravinja27%
×Draw27%
Gorica46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dravinja
0.97
Gorica
1.36

Gorica creates 40% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 71 away

creates per match

Dravinja
0.98
Gorica
1.68

allows per match

Dravinja
1.04
Gorica
0.97

finishing

Dravinja+0.00on par
Gorica+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dravinja ↓

Gorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dravinja or draw
54%
Dravinja or Gorica
73%
Draw or Gorica
73%

Winning margin

Dravinja wins by 2+
10%
Gorica wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Dravinja 1+ goals
62%
Dravinja 2+ goals
25%
Dravinja 3+ goals
7%
Gorica 1+ goals
74%
Gorica 2+ goals
39%
Gorica 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dravinja (draw refunded)
37%
Gorica (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dravinja at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Gorica away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.97 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dravinja attack 0.98 + Gorica defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.97

Gorica attack 1.68 + Dravinja defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dravinja scores more
27%
level
27%
Gorica scores more
46%

Gorica at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dravinja vs Gorica

Gorica beat Dravinja 3-0 in 2. SNL on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Štadion Dobrava in Slovenske Konjice.