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Dravinja vs Dravograd — 3. SNL - East 2020

Dravinja
Dravinja
FT
3 – 5
HT: 2 – 3
Dravograd
Dravograd
5/29/20213. SNL - East3. SNL - East · East - Promotion Round - 4Štadion Dobrava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dravinja49%
×Draw22%
Dravograd29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dravinja
1.97
Dravograd
1.48

Dravinja creates 33% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dravinja
2.43
Dravograd
1.25

allows per match

Dravinja
1.71
Dravograd
1.50

finishing

Dravinja+0.00on par
Dravograd+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dravinja ↓

Dravograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Dravinja or draw
71%
Dravinja or Dravograd
78%
Draw or Dravograd
51%

Winning margin

Dravinja wins by 2+
28%
Dravograd wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dravinja 1+ goals
86%
Dravinja 2+ goals
58%
Dravinja 3+ goals
31%
Dravograd 1+ goals
77%
Dravograd 2+ goals
43%
Dravograd 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dravinja (draw refunded)
63%
Dravograd (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dravinja at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Dravograd away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dravinja attack 2.43 + Dravograd defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.97

Dravograd attack 1.25 + Dravinja defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dravinja scores more
49%
level
22%
Dravograd scores more
29%

Dravinja at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dravinja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. SNL - East: Dravinja 3–5 Dravograd

Dravograd beat Dravinja 5-3 in 3. SNL - East on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Štadion Dobrava in Slovenske Konjice.