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Drapeau Fougères vs Bastia — Coupe de France 2018

Drapeau Fougères
Drapeau Fougères
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Bastia
Bastia
11/13/2021Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundStade Jean Manfredi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Drapeau Fougères14%
×Draw20%
Bastia66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drapeau Fougères
0.78
Bastia
2.00

Bastia creates 156% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Drapeau Fougères
0.67
Bastia
2.33

allows per match

Drapeau Fougères
1.67
Bastia
0.89

finishing

Drapeau Fougères+0.00on par
Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drapeau Fougères ↓

Bastia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Drapeau Fougères or draw
34%
Drapeau Fougères or Bastia
80%
Draw or Bastia
86%

Winning margin

Drapeau Fougères wins by 2+
4%
Bastia wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Drapeau Fougères 1+ goals
54%
Drapeau Fougères 2+ goals
18%
Drapeau Fougères 3+ goals
4%
Bastia 1+ goals
86%
Bastia 2+ goals
59%
Bastia 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Drapeau Fougères (draw refunded)
17%
Bastia (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drapeau Fougères at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Bastia away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drapeau Fougères attack 0.67 + Bastia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.78

Bastia attack 2.33 + Drapeau Fougères defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Drapeau Fougères scores more
14%
level
20%
Bastia scores more
66%

Bastia at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Drapeau Fougères 0–2 Bastia

Bastia beat Drapeau Fougères 2-0 in Coupe de France on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Jean Manfredi in Fougères.