Dragons 0–2 Loto Popo: Result & Stats

Dragons

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Loto Popo

5/22/2026

Championnat National · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Dragons38%

×Draw32%

Loto Popo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DragonsExpected goals in this matchLoto Popo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.84

Dragons

1.00

Loto Popo

0.84

Dragons creates 19% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 93 away

1.23

creates per match

0.99

0.69

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Dragons

1.23

Loto Popo

0.99

allows per match

Dragons

0.69

Loto Popo

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dragons+0.00on par

Loto Popo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dragons ↓

Loto Popo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Dragons or draw

70%

Dragons or Loto Popo

68%

Draw or Loto Popo

62%

Winning margin

Dragons wins by 2+

15%

Loto Popo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dragons 1+ goals

63%

Dragons 2+ goals

26%

Dragons 3+ goals

8%

Loto Popo 1+ goals

57%

Loto Popo 2+ goals

21%

Loto Popo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dragons (draw refunded)

56%

Loto Popo (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dragons at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.69 · 117 matches

Loto Popo away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.78 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dragons attack 1.23 + Loto Popo defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.00

Loto Popo attack 0.99 + Dragons defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dragons scores more

38%

level

32%

Loto Popo scores more

30%

Dragons at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dragons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff