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Dragons vs Etoile Filante — Championnat National 2019

Dragons
Dragons
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Etoile Filante
Etoile Filante
11/3/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group B - 6Stade Charles de Gaulle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Dragons53%
×Draw30%
Etoile Filante18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dragons
1.27
Etoile Filante
0.60

Dragons creates 112% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 29 away

creates per match

Dragons
1.23
Etoile Filante
0.52

allows per match

Dragons
0.69
Etoile Filante
1.31

finishing

Dragons+0.00on par
Etoile Filante+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dragons ↓

Etoile Filante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Dragons or draw
82%
Dragons or Etoile Filante
70%
Draw or Etoile Filante
47%

Winning margin

Dragons wins by 2+
25%
Etoile Filante wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dragons 1+ goals
72%
Dragons 2+ goals
36%
Dragons 3+ goals
14%
Etoile Filante 1+ goals
45%
Etoile Filante 2+ goals
12%
Etoile Filante 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Dragons (draw refunded)
75%
Etoile Filante (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dragons at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.69 · 117 matches

Etoile Filante away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dragons attack 1.23 + Etoile Filante defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Etoile Filante attack 0.52 + Dragons defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dragons scores more
53%
level
30%
Etoile Filante scores more
18%

Dragons at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dragons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dragons vs Etoile Filante

Dragons and Etoile Filante drew 0-0 in Championnat National on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Charles de Gaulle in Porto-Novo.