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Dragons vs Esae — Championnat National 2019

Dragons
Dragons
FT
1 – 1
Esae
Esae
3/2/2020Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 17Stade Municipal de Missérété

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Dragons38%
×Draw30%
Esae32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dragons
1.09
Esae
0.99

Dragons creates 10% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 29 away

creates per match

Dragons
1.25
Esae
1.28

allows per match

Dragons
0.70
Esae
0.93

finishing

Dragons+0.00on par
Esae+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dragons ↓

Esae →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dragons or draw
68%
Dragons or Esae
70%
Draw or Esae
62%

Winning margin

Dragons wins by 2+
15%
Esae wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dragons 1+ goals
66%
Dragons 2+ goals
30%
Dragons 3+ goals
10%
Esae 1+ goals
63%
Esae 2+ goals
26%
Esae 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dragons (draw refunded)
54%
Esae (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dragons at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.70 · 120 matches

Esae away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.93 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dragons attack 1.25 + Esae defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09

Esae attack 1.28 + Dragons defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dragons scores more
38%
level
30%
Esae scores more
32%

Dragons at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dragons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dragons vs Esae

Dragons and Esae drew 1-1 in Championnat National on March 2, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Missérété in Akpo-Missérété.