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Dragons vs Dynamo Abomey — Championnat National 2019

Dragons
Dragons
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dynamo Abomey
Dynamo Abomey
10/5/2025Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Dragons45%
×Draw30%
Dynamo Abomey25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dragons
1.19
Dynamo Abomey
0.80

Dragons creates 49% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 108 away

creates per match

Dragons
1.23
Dynamo Abomey
0.91

allows per match

Dragons
0.69
Dynamo Abomey
1.14

finishing

Dragons+0.00on par
Dynamo Abomey+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dragons ↓

Dynamo Abomey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dragons or draw
75%
Dragons or Dynamo Abomey
70%
Draw or Dynamo Abomey
55%

Winning margin

Dragons wins by 2+
20%
Dynamo Abomey wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dragons 1+ goals
70%
Dragons 2+ goals
33%
Dragons 3+ goals
12%
Dynamo Abomey 1+ goals
55%
Dynamo Abomey 2+ goals
19%
Dynamo Abomey 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dragons (draw refunded)
65%
Dynamo Abomey (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dragons at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.69 · 117 matches

Dynamo Abomey away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.14 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dragons attack 1.23 + Dynamo Abomey defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Dynamo Abomey attack 0.91 + Dragons defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dragons scores more
45%
level
30%
Dynamo Abomey scores more
25%

Dragons at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dragons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Dragons 1–0 Dynamo Abomey

Dragons beat Dynamo Abomey 1-0 in Championnat National on October 5, 2025.