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Dragons vs ASVO — Championnat National 2019

Dragons
Dragons
FT
0 – 2
ASVO
ASVO
12/13/2025Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Dragons41%
×Draw32%
ASVO27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dragons
1.04
ASVO
0.79

Dragons creates 32% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 109 away

creates per match

Dragons
1.23
ASVO
0.89

allows per match

Dragons
0.69
ASVO
0.85

finishing

Dragons+0.00on par
ASVO+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dragons ↓

ASVO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Dragons or draw
73%
Dragons or ASVO
68%
Draw or ASVO
59%

Winning margin

Dragons wins by 2+
16%
ASVO wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dragons 1+ goals
65%
Dragons 2+ goals
28%
Dragons 3+ goals
9%
ASVO 1+ goals
55%
ASVO 2+ goals
19%
ASVO 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dragons (draw refunded)
60%
ASVO (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dragons at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.69 · 117 matches

ASVO away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.85 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dragons attack 1.23 + ASVO defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.04

ASVO attack 0.89 + Dragons defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dragons scores more
41%
level
32%
ASVO scores more
27%

Dragons at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dragons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dragons vs ASVO

ASVO beat Dragons 2-0 in Championnat National on December 13, 2025.