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Dragón vs Platense — Primera Division 2019

Dragón
Dragón
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Platense
Platense
4/7/2024Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 15Estadio Juan Francisco Barraza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Dragón43%
×Draw26%
Platense31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dragón
1.43
Platense
1.17

Dragón creates 22% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 85 away

creates per match

Dragón
1.29
Platense
0.99

allows per match

Dragón
1.34
Platense
1.56

finishing

Dragón+0.00on par
Platense+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dragón ↓

Platense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dragón or draw
69%
Dragón or Platense
74%
Draw or Platense
57%

Winning margin

Dragón wins by 2+
21%
Platense wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dragón 1+ goals
76%
Dragón 2+ goals
42%
Dragón 3+ goals
17%
Platense 1+ goals
69%
Platense 2+ goals
33%
Platense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dragón (draw refunded)
58%
Platense (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dragón at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

Platense away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.56 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dragón attack 1.29 + Platense defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.43

Platense attack 0.99 + Dragón defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dragón scores more
43%
level
26%
Platense scores more
31%

Dragón at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dragón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Dragón 2–1 Platense

Dragón beat Platense 2-1 in Primera Division on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Francisco Barraza in San Miguel.