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Dragón vs Once Municipal — Primera Division 2019

Dragón
Dragón
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Once Municipal
Once Municipal
5/1/2024Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 20Estadio Juan Francisco Barraza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Dragón41%
×Draw26%
Once Municipal32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dragón
1.38
Once Municipal
1.18

Dragón creates 17% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 122 away

creates per match

Dragón
1.29
Once Municipal
1.02

allows per match

Dragón
1.34
Once Municipal
1.47

finishing

Dragón+0.00on par
Once Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dragón ↓

Once Municipal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dragón or draw
68%
Dragón or Once Municipal
74%
Draw or Once Municipal
59%

Winning margin

Dragón wins by 2+
19%
Once Municipal wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dragón 1+ goals
75%
Dragón 2+ goals
40%
Dragón 3+ goals
16%
Once Municipal 1+ goals
69%
Once Municipal 2+ goals
33%
Once Municipal 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dragón (draw refunded)
56%
Once Municipal (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dragón at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

Once Municipal away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dragón attack 1.29 + Once Municipal defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.38

Once Municipal attack 1.02 + Dragón defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dragón scores more
41%
level
26%
Once Municipal scores more
32%

Dragón at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dragón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Dragón 3–1 Once Municipal

Dragón beat Once Municipal 3-1 in Primera Division on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Francisco Barraza in San Miguel.