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Dragón vs Atlético Marte — Primera Division 2019

Dragón
Dragón
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Marte
Atlético Marte
4/12/2023Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 16Estadio Juan Francisco Barraza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Dragón45%
×Draw26%
Atlético Marte29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dragón
1.46
Atlético Marte
1.13

Dragón creates 29% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 56 away

creates per match

Dragón
1.29
Atlético Marte
0.91

allows per match

Dragón
1.34
Atlético Marte
1.63

finishing

Dragón+0.00on par
Atlético Marte+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dragón ↓

Atlético Marte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dragón or draw
71%
Dragón or Atlético Marte
74%
Draw or Atlético Marte
55%

Winning margin

Dragón wins by 2+
22%
Atlético Marte wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dragón 1+ goals
77%
Dragón 2+ goals
43%
Dragón 3+ goals
18%
Atlético Marte 1+ goals
68%
Atlético Marte 2+ goals
31%
Atlético Marte 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dragón (draw refunded)
60%
Atlético Marte (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dragón at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

Atlético Marte away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dragón attack 1.29 + Atlético Marte defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Atlético Marte attack 0.91 + Dragón defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dragón scores more
45%
level
26%
Atlético Marte scores more
29%

Dragón at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dragón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dragón vs Atlético Marte

Dragón beat Atlético Marte 3-1 in Primera Division on April 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Francisco Barraza in San Miguel.