Dragon de Yaoundé 2–3 Yafoot: Result & Stats

Dragon de Yaoundé

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Yafoot

Abanda 66'

S. Edoa 34'

A. Adija 56', 44'

K. Nana 42'

3/1/2025

Elite Two · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dragon de Yaoundé37%

×Draw24%

Yafoot39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dragon de YaoundéExpected goals in this matchYafoot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.57

Dragon de Yaoundé

1.52

Yafoot

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 33 away

1.61

creates per match

0.91

2.22

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Dragon de Yaoundé

1.61

Yafoot

0.91

allows per match

Dragon de Yaoundé

2.22

Yafoot

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dragon de Yaoundé+0.00on par

Yafoot+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dragon de Yaoundé ↓

Yafoot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Dragon de Yaoundé or draw

61%

Dragon de Yaoundé or Yafoot

76%

Draw or Yafoot

63%

Winning margin

Dragon de Yaoundé wins by 2+

18%

Yafoot wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Dragon de Yaoundé 1+ goals

78%

Dragon de Yaoundé 2+ goals

45%

Dragon de Yaoundé 3+ goals

20%

Yafoot 1+ goals

79%

Yafoot 2+ goals

46%

Yafoot 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Dragon de Yaoundé (draw refunded)

49%

Yafoot (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dragon de Yaoundé at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

Yafoot away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dragon de Yaoundé attack 1.61 + Yafoot defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

Yafoot attack 0.91 + Dragon de Yaoundé defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dragon de Yaoundé scores more

37%

level

24%

Yafoot scores more

39%

Yafoot at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Yafoot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

S. Edoa

42'

K. Nana

44'

A. Adija

56'

A. Adija

66'

Abanda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff