Dragon de Yaoundé 0–4 PWD Bamenda: Result & Stats

Dragon de Yaoundé

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

PWD Bamenda

6/14/2022

Elite One · Round 27Stade Municipal de Bafoussam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Dragon de Yaoundé36%

×Draw27%

PWD Bamenda37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dragon de YaoundéExpected goals in this matchPWD Bamenda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.23

Dragon de Yaoundé

1.22

PWD Bamenda

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 99 away

1.26

creates per match

1.01

1.44

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Dragon de Yaoundé

1.26

PWD Bamenda

1.01

allows per match

Dragon de Yaoundé

1.44

PWD Bamenda

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dragon de Yaoundé+0.00on par

PWD Bamenda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dragon de Yaoundé ↓

PWD Bamenda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dragon de Yaoundé or draw

63%

Dragon de Yaoundé or PWD Bamenda

73%

Draw or PWD Bamenda

64%

Winning margin

Dragon de Yaoundé wins by 2+

15%

PWD Bamenda wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Dragon de Yaoundé 1+ goals

70%

Dragon de Yaoundé 2+ goals

34%

Dragon de Yaoundé 3+ goals

12%

PWD Bamenda 1+ goals

71%

PWD Bamenda 2+ goals

35%

PWD Bamenda 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dragon de Yaoundé (draw refunded)

50%

PWD Bamenda (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dragon de Yaoundé at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.44 · 57 matches

PWD Bamenda away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.18 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dragon de Yaoundé attack 1.26 + PWD Bamenda defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.22

PWD Bamenda attack 1.01 + Dragon de Yaoundé defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dragon de Yaoundé scores more

36%

level

27%

PWD Bamenda scores more

37%

PWD Bamenda at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "PWD Bamenda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff