Dragão 0–1 Wiliete: Result & Stats | Girabola

Dragão

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Wiliete

4/2/2023

Girabola · Round 23Estádio 4 de Janeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dragão28%

×Draw35%

Wiliete37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DragãoExpected goals in this matchWiliete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.72

0.87

Dragão

0.72

Wiliete

0.87

Wiliete creates 21% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 99 away

0.43

creates per match

0.95

0.79

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Dragão

0.43

Wiliete

0.95

allows per match

Dragão

0.79

Wiliete

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dragão+0.00on par

Wiliete+0.00on par

Total goals

Under79
Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dragão ↓

Wiliete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–118%

0–28%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

47%53%2.5

21%79%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Dragão or draw

63%

Dragão or Wiliete

65%

Draw or Wiliete

72%

Winning margin

Dragão wins by 2+

8%

Wiliete wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dragão 1+ goals

51%

Dragão 2+ goals

16%

Dragão 3+ goals

4%

Wiliete 1+ goals

58%

Wiliete 2+ goals

22%

Wiliete 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Dragão (draw refunded)

43%

Wiliete (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dragão at home — creates 0.43, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Wiliete away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.02 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dragão attack 0.43 + Wiliete defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.72

Wiliete attack 0.95 + Dragão defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dragão scores more

28%

level

35%

Wiliete scores more

37%

Wiliete at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Wiliete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff