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Dragão vs Cuando Cubango — Girabola 2019

Dragão
Dragão
CANC
00:00
Cuando Cubango
Cuando Cubango
4/15/2023GirabolaGirabola · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dragão38%
×Draw33%
Cuando Cubango29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dragão
0.96
Cuando Cubango
0.80

Dragão creates 20% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 50 away

creates per match

Dragão
0.43
Cuando Cubango
0.80

allows per match

Dragão
0.79
Cuando Cubango
1.50

finishing

Dragão+0.00on par
Cuando Cubango+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dragão ↓

Cuando Cubango →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Dragão or draw
71%
Dragão or Cuando Cubango
67%
Draw or Cuando Cubango
62%

Winning margin

Dragão wins by 2+
14%
Cuando Cubango wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dragão 1+ goals
62%
Dragão 2+ goals
25%
Dragão 3+ goals
7%
Cuando Cubango 1+ goals
55%
Cuando Cubango 2+ goals
19%
Cuando Cubango 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dragão (draw refunded)
57%
Cuando Cubango (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dragão at home — creates 0.43, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Cuando Cubango away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dragão attack 0.43 + Cuando Cubango defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.96

Cuando Cubango attack 0.80 + Dragão defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dragão scores more
38%
level
33%
Cuando Cubango scores more
29%

Dragão at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dragão will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dragão vs Cuando Cubango — Match Preview

Dragão face Cuando Cubango on April 15, 2023 in this Girabola fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.