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Draßburg vs Wiener Viktoria — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Draßburg
Draßburg
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Wiener Viktoria
Wiener Viktoria
5/31/2024Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 30Sportplatz Draßburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Draßburg41%
×Draw24%
Wiener Viktoria35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Draßburg
1.59
Wiener Viktoria
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 89 away

creates per match

Draßburg
1.38
Wiener Viktoria
1.07

allows per match

Draßburg
1.85
Wiener Viktoria
1.81

finishing

Draßburg+0.00on par
Wiener Viktoria+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Draßburg ↓

Wiener Viktoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Draßburg or draw
65%
Draßburg or Wiener Viktoria
76%
Draw or Wiener Viktoria
59%

Winning margin

Draßburg wins by 2+
20%
Wiener Viktoria wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Draßburg 1+ goals
80%
Draßburg 2+ goals
47%
Draßburg 3+ goals
21%
Wiener Viktoria 1+ goals
77%
Wiener Viktoria 2+ goals
43%
Wiener Viktoria 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Draßburg (draw refunded)
54%
Wiener Viktoria (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Draßburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.85 · 55 matches

Wiener Viktoria away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.81 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Draßburg attack 1.38 + Wiener Viktoria defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.59

Wiener Viktoria attack 1.07 + Draßburg defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Draßburg scores more
41%
level
24%
Wiener Viktoria scores more
35%

Draßburg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Draßburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Draßburg 3–0 Wiener Viktoria

Draßburg beat Wiener Viktoria 3-0 in Regionalliga - Ost on May 31, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Draßburg in Draßburg.