Draßburg 0–0 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

Draßburg

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

4/1/2022

Regionalliga - Ost · Ost - 17Sportplatz Draßburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Draßburg32%

×Draw24%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DraßburgExpected goals in this matchMannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.68

Draßburg

1.38

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

1.68

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf creates 22% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 104 away

1.38

creates per match

1.51

1.85

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Draßburg

1.38

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

1.51

allows per match

Draßburg

1.85

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Draßburg+0.00on par

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Draßburg ↓

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Draßburg or draw

55%

Draßburg or Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

76%

Draw or Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

68%

Winning margin

Draßburg wins by 2+

14%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Draßburg 1+ goals

75%

Draßburg 2+ goals

40%

Draßburg 3+ goals

16%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 1+ goals

81%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 2+ goals

50%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Draßburg (draw refunded)

42%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Draßburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.85 · 55 matches

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.39 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Draßburg attack 1.38 + Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf attack 1.51 + Draßburg defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Draßburg scores more

32%

level

24%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf scores more

45%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff