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Doxa vs Pafos — Cup 2019

Doxa
Doxa
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Pafos
Pafosadvanced
2/15/2023CupCup · Quarter-finalsStadio Peristerona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Doxa27%
×Draw24%
Pafos49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doxa
1.23
Pafos
1.74

Pafos creates 41% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 17 away

creates per match

Doxa
1.86
Pafos
2.18

allows per match

Doxa
1.29
Pafos
0.59

finishing

Doxa+0.00on par
Pafos+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doxa ↓

Pafos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Doxa or draw
51%
Doxa or Pafos
76%
Draw or Pafos
73%

Winning margin

Doxa wins by 2+
11%
Pafos wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Doxa 1+ goals
71%
Doxa 2+ goals
35%
Doxa 3+ goals
13%
Pafos 1+ goals
82%
Pafos 2+ goals
52%
Pafos 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Doxa (draw refunded)
35%
Pafos (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doxa at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Pafos away — creates 2.18, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doxa attack 1.86 + Pafos defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.23

Pafos attack 2.18 + Doxa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Doxa scores more
27%
level
24%
Pafos scores more
49%

Pafos at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pafos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Doxa 1 – 4 Pafos

Pafos beat Doxa 4-1 in Cup on February 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Peristerona in Peristerona.