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Doxa vs Omonia Nicosia — 1. Division 2019

Doxa
Doxa
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Omonia Nicosia
Omonia Nicosia
10/1/20231. Division1. Division · Round 6Stadio Peristerona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Doxa24%
×Draw26%
Omonia Nicosia50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doxa
0.97
Omonia Nicosia
1.51

Omonia Nicosia creates 56% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 118 away

creates per match

Doxa
0.84
Omonia Nicosia
1.57

allows per match

Doxa
1.45
Omonia Nicosia
1.10

finishing

Doxa+0.00on par
Omonia Nicosia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doxa ↓

Omonia Nicosia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Doxa or draw
50%
Doxa or Omonia Nicosia
74%
Draw or Omonia Nicosia
76%

Winning margin

Doxa wins by 2+
9%
Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Doxa 1+ goals
62%
Doxa 2+ goals
25%
Doxa 3+ goals
7%
Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals
78%
Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals
44%
Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Doxa (draw refunded)
33%
Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doxa at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.45 · 88 matches

Omonia Nicosia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.10 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doxa attack 0.84 + Omonia Nicosia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.97

Omonia Nicosia attack 1.57 + Doxa defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Doxa scores more
24%
level
26%
Omonia Nicosia scores more
50%

Omonia Nicosia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Omonia Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Doxa 1–3 Omonia Nicosia

Omonia Nicosia beat Doxa 3-1 in 1. Division on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Peristerona in Peristerona.