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Doxa vs Omonia 29is Maiou — Cup 2019

Doxa
Doxa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Omonia 29is Maiou
Omonia 29is Maiou
11/8/2023CupCup · 1st RoundStadio Peristerona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Doxa56%
×Draw23%
Omonia 29is Maiou21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doxa
1.83
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.04

Doxa creates 76% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Doxa
1.86
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.80

allows per match

Doxa
1.29
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.80

finishing

Doxa+0.00on par
Omonia 29is Maiou+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doxa ↓

Omonia 29is Maiou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Doxa or draw
79%
Doxa or Omonia 29is Maiou
77%
Draw or Omonia 29is Maiou
44%

Winning margin

Doxa wins by 2+
32%
Omonia 29is Maiou wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Doxa 1+ goals
84%
Doxa 2+ goals
54%
Doxa 3+ goals
28%
Omonia 29is Maiou 1+ goals
65%
Omonia 29is Maiou 2+ goals
28%
Omonia 29is Maiou 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Doxa (draw refunded)
72%
Omonia 29is Maiou (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doxa at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Omonia 29is Maiou away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doxa attack 1.86 + Omonia 29is Maiou defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.83

Omonia 29is Maiou attack 0.80 + Doxa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Doxa scores more
56%
level
23%
Omonia 29is Maiou scores more
21%

Doxa at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Doxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Doxa 0–1 Omonia 29is Maiou

Omonia 29is Maiou beat Doxa 1-0 in Cup on November 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Peristerona in Peristerona.