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Doxa vs Ethnikos Achna — Cup 2019

Doxa
Doxa
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Ethnikos Achna
Ethnikos Achna
1/12/2023CupCup · 2nd RoundStadio Peristerona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Doxa29%
×Draw23%
Ethnikos Achna48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doxa
1.39
Ethnikos Achna
1.83

Ethnikos Achna creates 32% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

Doxa
1.86
Ethnikos Achna
2.38

allows per match

Doxa
1.29
Ethnikos Achna
0.92

finishing

Doxa+0.00on par
Ethnikos Achna+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doxa ↓

Ethnikos Achna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Doxa or draw
52%
Doxa or Ethnikos Achna
77%
Draw or Ethnikos Achna
71%

Winning margin

Doxa wins by 2+
13%
Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Doxa 1+ goals
75%
Doxa 2+ goals
40%
Doxa 3+ goals
16%
Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals
84%
Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals
54%
Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Doxa (draw refunded)
38%
Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doxa at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Ethnikos Achna away — creates 2.38, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doxa attack 1.86 + Ethnikos Achna defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.39

Ethnikos Achna attack 2.38 + Doxa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Doxa scores more
29%
level
23%
Ethnikos Achna scores more
48%

Ethnikos Achna at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ethnikos Achna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Doxa 5–1 Ethnikos Achna

Doxa beat Ethnikos Achna 5-1 in Cup on January 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Peristerona in Peristerona.