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Doxa vs AEK Larnaca — 1. Division 2019

Doxa
Doxa
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca
9/2/20231. Division1. Division · Round 3Stadio Peristerona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Doxa26%
×Draw27%
AEK Larnaca47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doxa
0.95
AEK Larnaca
1.37

AEK Larnaca creates 44% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 118 away

creates per match

Doxa
0.84
AEK Larnaca
1.29

allows per match

Doxa
1.45
AEK Larnaca
1.06

finishing

Doxa+0.00on par
AEK Larnaca+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doxa ↓

AEK Larnaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Doxa or draw
53%
Doxa or AEK Larnaca
73%
Draw or AEK Larnaca
74%

Winning margin

Doxa wins by 2+
9%
AEK Larnaca wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Doxa 1+ goals
61%
Doxa 2+ goals
25%
Doxa 3+ goals
7%
AEK Larnaca 1+ goals
75%
AEK Larnaca 2+ goals
40%
AEK Larnaca 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Doxa (draw refunded)
36%
AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doxa at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.45 · 88 matches

AEK Larnaca away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doxa attack 0.84 + AEK Larnaca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.95

AEK Larnaca attack 1.29 + Doxa defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Doxa scores more
26%
level
27%
AEK Larnaca scores more
47%

AEK Larnaca at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AEK Larnaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Doxa vs AEK Larnaca

AEK Larnaca beat Doxa 2-0 in 1. Division on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Peristerona in Peristerona.