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Downtown vs Paynesville — LFA First Division 2020

Downtown
Downtown
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Paynesville
Paynesville
3/20/2026LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Downtown36%
×Draw25%
Paynesville39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Downtown
1.39
Paynesville
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 40 away

creates per match

Downtown
1.08
Paynesville
1.52

allows per match

Downtown
1.38
Paynesville
1.70

finishing

Downtown+0.00on par
Paynesville+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Downtown ↓

Paynesville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Downtown or draw
61%
Downtown or Paynesville
75%
Draw or Paynesville
64%

Winning margin

Downtown wins by 2+
17%
Paynesville wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Downtown 1+ goals
75%
Downtown 2+ goals
40%
Downtown 3+ goals
16%
Paynesville 1+ goals
77%
Paynesville 2+ goals
42%
Paynesville 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Downtown (draw refunded)
48%
Paynesville (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Downtown at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Paynesville away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Downtown attack 1.08 + Paynesville defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.39

Paynesville attack 1.52 + Downtown defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Downtown scores more
36%
level
25%
Paynesville scores more
39%

Paynesville at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Paynesville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Downtown 1–0 Paynesville

Downtown beat Paynesville 1-0 in LFA First Division on March 20, 2026.