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Downtown vs Black Man Warrior — LFA First Division 2020

Downtown
Downtown
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Black Man Warrior
Black Man Warrior
2/15/2026LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Downtown37%
×Draw29%
Black Man Warrior34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Downtown
1.17
Black Man Warrior
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 27 away

creates per match

Downtown
1.08
Black Man Warrior
0.85

allows per match

Downtown
1.38
Black Man Warrior
1.26

finishing

Downtown+0.00on par
Black Man Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Downtown ↓

Black Man Warrior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Downtown or draw
66%
Downtown or Black Man Warrior
71%
Draw or Black Man Warrior
63%

Winning margin

Downtown wins by 2+
16%
Black Man Warrior wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Downtown 1+ goals
69%
Downtown 2+ goals
33%
Downtown 3+ goals
11%
Black Man Warrior 1+ goals
67%
Black Man Warrior 2+ goals
30%
Black Man Warrior 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Downtown (draw refunded)
52%
Black Man Warrior (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Downtown at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Black Man Warrior away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Downtown attack 1.08 + Black Man Warrior defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

Black Man Warrior attack 0.85 + Downtown defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Downtown scores more
37%
level
29%
Black Man Warrior scores more
34%

Downtown at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Downtown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Downtown vs Black Man Warrior

Downtown beat Black Man Warrior 1-0 in LFA First Division on February 15, 2026.