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Dovo vs ONS Sneek — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Dovo
Dovo
FT
5 – 0
ONS Sneek
ONS Sneek
12/7/2019Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 15Sportpark Panhuis (DOVO) (Veenendaal)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Dovo71%
×Draw16%
ONS Sneek14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dovo
2.80
ONS Sneek
1.17

Dovo creates 139% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 12 away

creates per match

Dovo
1.93
ONS Sneek
1.00

allows per match

Dovo
1.33
ONS Sneek
3.67

finishing

Dovo+0.00on par
ONS Sneek+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dovo ↓

ONS Sneek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Dovo or draw
86%
Dovo or ONS Sneek
84%
Draw or ONS Sneek
29%

Winning margin

Dovo wins by 2+
50%
ONS Sneek wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dovo 1+ goals
94%
Dovo 2+ goals
76%
Dovo 3+ goals
52%
ONS Sneek 1+ goals
69%
ONS Sneek 2+ goals
33%
ONS Sneek 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dovo (draw refunded)
84%
ONS Sneek (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dovo at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.33 · 99 matches

ONS Sneek away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dovo attack 1.93 + ONS Sneek defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.80

ONS Sneek attack 1.00 + Dovo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Dovo scores more
71%
level
16%
ONS Sneek scores more
14%

Dovo at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Dovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Dovo 5–0 ONS Sneek

Dovo beat ONS Sneek 5-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on December 7, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark Panhuis (DOVO) (Veenendaal).