Dovo 3–1 Hoogeveen: Result & Stats

Dovo

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Hoogeveen

11/4/2023

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 11Sportpark Panhuis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Dovo57%

×Draw20%

Hoogeveen23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DovoExpected goals in this matchHoogeveen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.40

Dovo

2.26

Hoogeveen

1.40

Dovo creates 61% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 34 away

1.93

creates per match

1.47

1.33

allows per match

2.59

creates per match

Dovo

1.93

Hoogeveen

1.47

allows per match

Dovo

1.33

Hoogeveen

2.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dovo+0.00on par

Hoogeveen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dovo ↓

Hoogeveen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Dovo or draw

77%

Dovo or Hoogeveen

80%

Draw or Hoogeveen

43%

Winning margin

Dovo wins by 2+

35%

Hoogeveen wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dovo 1+ goals

89%

Dovo 2+ goals

66%

Dovo 3+ goals

39%

Hoogeveen 1+ goals

75%

Hoogeveen 2+ goals

41%

Hoogeveen 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dovo (draw refunded)

71%

Hoogeveen (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dovo at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.33 · 99 matches

Hoogeveen away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.59 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dovo attack 1.93 + Hoogeveen defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.26

Hoogeveen attack 1.47 + Dovo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dovo scores more

57%

level

20%

Hoogeveen scores more

23%

Dovo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff