Dovo 1–0 Ajax Amateurs: Result & Stats

Dovo

FT

1 – 0

Ajax Amateurs

9/11/2021

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 4Sportpark Panhuis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Dovo55%

×Draw22%

Ajax Amateurs24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DovoExpected goals in this matchAjax Amateurs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.23

Dovo

1.98

Ajax Amateurs

1.23

Dovo creates 61% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 49 away

1.93

creates per match

1.12

1.33

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Dovo

1.93

Ajax Amateurs

1.12

allows per match

Dovo

1.33

Ajax Amateurs

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dovo+0.00on par

Ajax Amateurs+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dovo ↓

Ajax Amateurs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Dovo or draw

76%

Dovo or Ajax Amateurs

78%

Draw or Ajax Amateurs

45%

Winning margin

Dovo wins by 2+

32%

Ajax Amateurs wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dovo 1+ goals

86%

Dovo 2+ goals

59%

Dovo 3+ goals

31%

Ajax Amateurs 1+ goals

71%

Ajax Amateurs 2+ goals

35%

Ajax Amateurs 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dovo (draw refunded)

70%

Ajax Amateurs (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dovo at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.33 · 99 matches

Ajax Amateurs away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dovo attack 1.93 + Ajax Amateurs defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.98

Ajax Amateurs attack 1.12 + Dovo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dovo scores more

55%

level

22%

Ajax Amateurs scores more

24%

Dovo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Dovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff