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Douglas Haig vs Santamarina — Torneo Federal A 2018

Douglas Haig
Douglas Haig
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Santamarina
Santamarina
11/5/2023Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundEstadio Miguel Morales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Douglas Haig50%
×Draw29%
Santamarina21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Douglas Haig
1.31
Santamarina
0.74

Douglas Haig creates 77% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 54 away

creates per match

Douglas Haig
1.27
Santamarina
0.72

allows per match

Douglas Haig
0.76
Santamarina
1.35

finishing

Douglas Haig+0.00on par
Santamarina+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Douglas Haig ↓

Santamarina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Douglas Haig or draw
79%
Douglas Haig or Santamarina
71%
Draw or Santamarina
50%

Winning margin

Douglas Haig wins by 2+
24%
Santamarina wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Douglas Haig 1+ goals
73%
Douglas Haig 2+ goals
38%
Douglas Haig 3+ goals
14%
Santamarina 1+ goals
52%
Santamarina 2+ goals
17%
Santamarina 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Douglas Haig (draw refunded)
70%
Santamarina (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Douglas Haig at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.76 · 116 matches

Santamarina away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.35 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Douglas Haig attack 1.27 + Santamarina defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Santamarina attack 0.72 + Douglas Haig defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Douglas Haig scores more
50%
level
29%
Santamarina scores more
21%

Douglas Haig at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Douglas Haig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Douglas Haig vs Santamarina

Douglas Haig and Santamarina drew 0-0 in Torneo Federal A on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Morales in Pergamino, Provincia de Buenos Aires.