Douglas Haig vs Ferro Carril Oeste LP — Copa Argentina 2026
Copa Argentina · 1st Qualifying RoundEstadio Miguel Morales (Pergamino, Provincia de Buenos Aires)Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Douglas Haig66%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP14%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Douglas Haig creates 141% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Douglas Haig ↓
Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Douglas Haig at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches
Ferro Carril Oeste LP away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Douglas Haig attack 2.00 + Ferro Carril Oeste LP defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17
Ferro Carril Oeste LP attack 1.00 + Douglas Haig defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 66%?"
Douglas Haig at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 66% does not mean "Douglas Haig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Douglas Haig host Ferro Carril Oeste LP on Thursday, 17 January 2019 at 00:30. The match is part of the Copa Argentina 2026/2027 season.
Douglas Haig 6 – 3 Ferro Carril Oeste LP
Douglas Haig beat Ferro Carril Oeste LP 6-3 in Copa Argentina on January 17, 2019.
Goals: C. Duma (27', 75' pen, 78'), F. Vasilchik (30'), D. De Hoyos (35' pen), J. Zaninovich (44'), D. González (55'), Y. Arismendi (83'), I. Berdini (85').
The match was played at Estadio Miguel Morales (Pergamino, Provincia de Buenos Aires).