Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Doubravka vs Sokol Čížová — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Doubravka
Doubravka
FT
5 – 1
Sokol Čížová
Sokol Čížová
9/21/20194. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 7Sportovni areal v Chrastecke ulice (Plzeň)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Doubravka57%
×Draw22%
Sokol Čížová21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doubravka
1.99
Sokol Čížová
1.13

Doubravka creates 76% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 7 away

creates per match

Doubravka
2.28
Sokol Čížová
0.71

allows per match

Doubravka
1.55
Sokol Čížová
1.71

finishing

Doubravka+0.00on par
Sokol Čížová+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doubravka ↓

Sokol Čížová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Doubravka or draw
79%
Doubravka or Sokol Čížová
78%
Draw or Sokol Čížová
43%

Winning margin

Doubravka wins by 2+
34%
Sokol Čížová wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Doubravka 1+ goals
86%
Doubravka 2+ goals
59%
Doubravka 3+ goals
32%
Sokol Čížová 1+ goals
68%
Sokol Čížová 2+ goals
31%
Sokol Čížová 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Doubravka (draw refunded)
73%
Sokol Čížová (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doubravka at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.55 · 83 matches

Sokol Čížová away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doubravka attack 2.28 + Sokol Čížová defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.99

Sokol Čížová attack 0.71 + Doubravka defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Doubravka scores more
57%
level
22%
Sokol Čížová scores more
21%

Doubravka at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Doubravka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Doubravka 5–1 Sokol Čížová

Doubravka beat Sokol Čížová 5-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Sportovni areal v Chrastecke ulice (Plzeň).