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Doubravka vs Slavoj Český Krumlov — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Doubravka
Doubravka
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Slavoj Český Krumlov
Slavoj Český Krumlov
8/30/20254. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 4Sportovni areal v Chrastecke ulice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Doubravka52%
×Draw20%
Slavoj Český Krumlov27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doubravka
2.25
Slavoj Český Krumlov
1.59

Doubravka creates 42% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 60 away

creates per match

Doubravka
2.28
Slavoj Český Krumlov
1.63

allows per match

Doubravka
1.55
Slavoj Český Krumlov
2.22

finishing

Doubravka+0.00on par
Slavoj Český Krumlov+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doubravka ↓

Slavoj Český Krumlov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Doubravka or draw
73%
Doubravka or Slavoj Český Krumlov
80%
Draw or Slavoj Český Krumlov
48%

Winning margin

Doubravka wins by 2+
32%
Slavoj Český Krumlov wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Doubravka 1+ goals
89%
Doubravka 2+ goals
65%
Doubravka 3+ goals
39%
Slavoj Český Krumlov 1+ goals
80%
Slavoj Český Krumlov 2+ goals
47%
Slavoj Český Krumlov 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Doubravka (draw refunded)
66%
Slavoj Český Krumlov (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doubravka at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.55 · 83 matches

Slavoj Český Krumlov away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doubravka attack 2.28 + Slavoj Český Krumlov defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.25

Slavoj Český Krumlov attack 1.63 + Doubravka defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Doubravka scores more
52%
level
20%
Slavoj Český Krumlov scores more
27%

Doubravka at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Doubravka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Doubravka 4–1 Slavoj Český Krumlov

Doubravka beat Slavoj Český Krumlov 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at Sportovni areal v Chrastecke ulice in Plzeň.