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Doubravka vs Český lev - Union Beroun — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Doubravka
Doubravka
PST
15:00
Český lev - Union Beroun
Český lev - Union Beroun
6/7/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 29Sportovni areal v Chrastecke ulice (Plzeň)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Doubravka68%
×Draw17%
Český lev - Union Beroun15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doubravka
2.64
Český lev - Union Beroun
1.16

Doubravka creates 128% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 25 away

creates per match

Doubravka
2.28
Český lev - Union Beroun
0.76

allows per match

Doubravka
1.55
Český lev - Union Beroun
3.00

finishing

Doubravka+0.00on par
Český lev - Union Beroun+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doubravka ↓

Český lev - Union Beroun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Doubravka or draw
85%
Doubravka or Český lev - Union Beroun
83%
Draw or Český lev - Union Beroun
32%

Winning margin

Doubravka wins by 2+
47%
Český lev - Union Beroun wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Doubravka 1+ goals
93%
Doubravka 2+ goals
74%
Doubravka 3+ goals
48%
Český lev - Union Beroun 1+ goals
69%
Český lev - Union Beroun 2+ goals
32%
Český lev - Union Beroun 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Doubravka (draw refunded)
82%
Český lev - Union Beroun (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doubravka at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.55 · 83 matches

Český lev - Union Beroun away — creates 0.76, concedes 3.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doubravka attack 2.28 + Český lev - Union Beroun defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.64

Český lev - Union Beroun attack 0.76 + Doubravka defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Doubravka scores more
68%
level
17%
Český lev - Union Beroun scores more
15%

Doubravka at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Doubravka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Doubravka host Český lev - Union Beroun

June 7, 2020: Doubravka take on Český lev - Union Beroun in 4. liga - Divizie A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Doubravka host Český lev - Union Beroun at Sportovni areal v Chrastecke ulice (Plzeň).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.