Český lev - Union Beroun 0–4 Doubravka

Český lev - Union Beroun

FT

0 – 4

Doubravka

10/30/2021

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 14Fotbalové hřiště Beroun

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Český lev - Union Beroun35%

×Draw24%

Doubravka41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Český lev - Union BerounExpected goals in this matchDoubravka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.66

Český lev - Union Beroun

1.52

Doubravka

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 84 away

1.29

creates per match

1.27

2.04

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Český lev - Union Beroun

1.29

Doubravka

1.27

allows per match

Český lev - Union Beroun

2.04

Doubravka

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Český lev - Union Beroun+0.00on par

Doubravka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Český lev - Union Beroun ↓

Doubravka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Český lev - Union Beroun or draw

59%

Český lev - Union Beroun or Doubravka

76%

Draw or Doubravka

65%

Winning margin

Český lev - Union Beroun wins by 2+

17%

Doubravka wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Český lev - Union Beroun 1+ goals

78%

Český lev - Union Beroun 2+ goals

45%

Český lev - Union Beroun 3+ goals

20%

Doubravka 1+ goals

81%

Doubravka 2+ goals

49%

Doubravka 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Český lev - Union Beroun (draw refunded)

46%

Doubravka (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Český lev - Union Beroun at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

Doubravka away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.75 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Český lev - Union Beroun attack 1.29 + Doubravka defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.52

Doubravka attack 1.27 + Český lev - Union Beroun defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Český lev - Union Beroun scores more

35%

level

24%

Doubravka scores more

41%

Doubravka at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Doubravka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff