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Douannes de Sikasso vs CAS de Sévaré — Première Division 2019

Douannes de Sikasso
Douannes de Sikasso
FT
1 – 1
CAS de Sévaré
CAS de Sévaré
5/22/2021Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 16Stade Babemba Traoré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Douannes de Sikasso39%
×Draw33%
CAS de Sévaré28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Douannes de Sikasso
0.99
CAS de Sévaré
0.78

Douannes de Sikasso creates 27% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 9 away

creates per match

Douannes de Sikasso
0.65
CAS de Sévaré
0.67

allows per match

Douannes de Sikasso
0.88
CAS de Sévaré
1.33

finishing

Douannes de Sikasso+0.00on par
CAS de Sévaré+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Douannes de Sikasso ↓

CAS de Sévaré →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Douannes de Sikasso or draw
72%
Douannes de Sikasso or CAS de Sévaré
67%
Draw or CAS de Sévaré
61%

Winning margin

Douannes de Sikasso wins by 2+
15%
CAS de Sévaré wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Douannes de Sikasso 1+ goals
63%
Douannes de Sikasso 2+ goals
26%
Douannes de Sikasso 3+ goals
8%
CAS de Sévaré 1+ goals
54%
CAS de Sévaré 2+ goals
18%
CAS de Sévaré 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Douannes de Sikasso (draw refunded)
59%
CAS de Sévaré (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Douannes de Sikasso at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

CAS de Sévaré away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Douannes de Sikasso attack 0.65 + CAS de Sévaré defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.99

CAS de Sévaré attack 0.67 + Douannes de Sikasso defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Douannes de Sikasso scores more
39%
level
33%
CAS de Sévaré scores more
28%

Douannes de Sikasso at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Douannes de Sikasso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Douannes de Sikasso 1–1 CAS de Sévaré

Douannes de Sikasso and CAS de Sévaré drew 1-1 in Première Division on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Babemba Traoré in Sikasso.