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Douannes de Sikasso vs ASKO — Première Division 2019

Douannes de Sikasso
Douannes de Sikasso
FT
0 – 1
ASKO
ASKO
12/4/2021Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 5Stade Babemba Traoré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Douannes de Sikasso31%
×Draw35%
ASKO35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Douannes de Sikasso
0.79
ASKO
0.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 84 away

creates per match

Douannes de Sikasso
0.65
ASKO
0.85

allows per match

Douannes de Sikasso
0.88
ASKO
0.94

finishing

Douannes de Sikasso+0.00on par
ASKO+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Douannes de Sikasso ↓

ASKO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–117%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Douannes de Sikasso or draw
65%
Douannes de Sikasso or ASKO
65%
Draw or ASKO
69%

Winning margin

Douannes de Sikasso wins by 2+
10%
ASKO wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Douannes de Sikasso 1+ goals
55%
Douannes de Sikasso 2+ goals
19%
Douannes de Sikasso 3+ goals
5%
ASKO 1+ goals
58%
ASKO 2+ goals
21%
ASKO 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Douannes de Sikasso (draw refunded)
47%
ASKO (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Douannes de Sikasso at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

ASKO away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.94 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Douannes de Sikasso attack 0.65 + ASKO defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.79

ASKO attack 0.85 + Douannes de Sikasso defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Douannes de Sikasso scores more
31%
level
35%
ASKO scores more
35%

ASKO at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "ASKO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Douannes de Sikasso 0–1 ASKO

ASKO beat Douannes de Sikasso 1-0 in Première Division on December 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Babemba Traoré in Sikasso.