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Douanes vs Mbour Petite Côte — Ligue 1 2019

Douanes
Douanes
FT
2 – 1
Mbour Petite Côte
Mbour Petite Côte
3/7/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 13Stade Municipal De Ndiarème

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Douanes43%
×Draw32%
Mbour Petite Côte25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Douanes
1.06
Mbour Petite Côte
0.73

Douanes creates 45% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 33 away

creates per match

Douanes
0.83
Mbour Petite Côte
0.48

allows per match

Douanes
0.98
Mbour Petite Côte
1.30

finishing

Douanes+0.00on par
Mbour Petite Côte+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Douanes ↓

Mbour Petite Côte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Douanes or draw
75%
Douanes or Mbour Petite Côte
68%
Draw or Mbour Petite Côte
57%

Winning margin

Douanes wins by 2+
17%
Mbour Petite Côte wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Douanes 1+ goals
65%
Douanes 2+ goals
29%
Douanes 3+ goals
9%
Mbour Petite Côte 1+ goals
52%
Mbour Petite Côte 2+ goals
17%
Mbour Petite Côte 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Douanes (draw refunded)
63%
Mbour Petite Côte (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Douanes at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

Mbour Petite Côte away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Douanes attack 0.83 + Mbour Petite Côte defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.06

Mbour Petite Côte attack 0.48 + Douanes defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Douanes scores more
43%
level
32%
Mbour Petite Côte scores more
25%

Douanes at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Douanes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Douanes 2–1 Mbour Petite Côte

Douanes beat Mbour Petite Côte 2-1 in Ligue 1 on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Municipal De Ndiarème in Dakar.