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Douanes vs La Linguère — Ligue 1 2019

Douanes
Douanes
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
La Linguère
La Linguère
12/29/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 11Stade Municipal De Ndiarème

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Douanes35%
×Draw35%
La Linguère30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Douanes
0.87
La Linguère
0.78

Douanes creates 12% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 69 away

creates per match

Douanes
0.83
La Linguère
0.58

allows per match

Douanes
0.98
La Linguère
0.91

finishing

Douanes+0.00on par
La Linguère+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Douanes ↓

La Linguère →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Douanes or draw
70%
Douanes or La Linguère
65%
Draw or La Linguère
65%

Winning margin

Douanes wins by 2+
12%
La Linguère wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Douanes 1+ goals
58%
Douanes 2+ goals
22%
Douanes 3+ goals
6%
La Linguère 1+ goals
54%
La Linguère 2+ goals
18%
La Linguère 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Douanes (draw refunded)
54%
La Linguère (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Douanes at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

La Linguère away — creates 0.58, concedes 0.91 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Douanes attack 0.83 + La Linguère defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.87

La Linguère attack 0.58 + Douanes defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Douanes scores more
35%
level
35%
La Linguère scores more
30%

Douanes at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Douanes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Douanes vs La Linguère

Douanes and La Linguère drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on December 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal De Ndiarème in Dakar.