Douanes 0–2 Génération Foot: Result & Stats

Douanes

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Génération Foot

11/26/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade Municipal De Ndiarème

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Douanes30%

×Draw33%

Génération Foot38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DouanesExpected goals in this matchGénération Foot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

0.98

Douanes

0.83

Génération Foot

0.98

Génération Foot creates 18% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 88 away

0.83

creates per match

0.98

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Douanes

0.83

Génération Foot

0.98

allows per match

Douanes

0.98

Génération Foot

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Douanes+0.00on par

Génération Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Douanes ↓

Génération Foot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Douanes or draw

62%

Douanes or Génération Foot

67%

Draw or Génération Foot

70%

Winning margin

Douanes wins by 2+

10%

Génération Foot wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Douanes 1+ goals

56%

Douanes 2+ goals

20%

Douanes 3+ goals

5%

Génération Foot 1+ goals

62%

Génération Foot 2+ goals

26%

Génération Foot 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Douanes (draw refunded)

44%

Génération Foot (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Douanes at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

Génération Foot away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.83 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Douanes attack 0.83 + Génération Foot defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.83

Génération Foot attack 0.98 + Douanes defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Douanes scores more

30%

level

33%

Génération Foot scores more

38%

Génération Foot at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Génération Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff