Douanes 0–1 ES Tunis: Result & Stats

Douanes

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

ES Tunis

9/17/2023

CAF Champions League · 2nd Preliminary RoundStade de Yamoussoukro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Douanes28%

×Draw40%

ES Tunis32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DouanesExpected goals in this matchES Tunis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.61

0.68

Douanes

0.61

ES Tunis

0.68

ES Tunis creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 40 away

0.33

creates per match

1.02

0.33

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Douanes

0.33

ES Tunis

1.02

allows per match

Douanes

0.33

ES Tunis

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Douanes+0.00on par

ES Tunis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under86
Over14

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No77
Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Douanes ↓

ES Tunis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–028%

0–119%

0–26%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–13%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (28%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

72%28%1.5

37%63%2.5

14%86%3.5

4%96%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Douanes or draw

68%

Douanes or ES Tunis

60%

Draw or ES Tunis

72%

Winning margin

Douanes wins by 2+

7%

ES Tunis wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Douanes 1+ goals

46%

Douanes 2+ goals

13%

Douanes 3+ goals

2%

ES Tunis 1+ goals

49%

ES Tunis 2+ goals

15%

ES Tunis 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Douanes (draw refunded)

46%

ES Tunis (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

11%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Douanes at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

ES Tunis away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Douanes attack 0.33 + ES Tunis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.61

ES Tunis attack 1.02 + Douanes defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 32%?"

Douanes scores more

28%

level

40%

ES Tunis scores more

32%

ES Tunis at 32% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 32% does not mean "ES Tunis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff