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Douanes vs DSC — Ligue 1 2019

Douanes
Douanes
FT
1 – 1
DSC
DSC
12/11/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 3Stade Municipal De Ndiarème

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Douanes34%
×Draw34%
DSC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Douanes
0.87
DSC
0.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 89 away

creates per match

Douanes
0.83
DSC
0.67

allows per match

Douanes
0.98
DSC
0.91

finishing

Douanes+0.00on par
DSC+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Douanes ↓

DSC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Douanes or draw
68%
Douanes or DSC
66%
Draw or DSC
66%

Winning margin

Douanes wins by 2+
12%
DSC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Douanes 1+ goals
58%
Douanes 2+ goals
22%
Douanes 3+ goals
6%
DSC 1+ goals
56%
DSC 2+ goals
20%
DSC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Douanes (draw refunded)
52%
DSC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Douanes at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

DSC away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.91 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Douanes attack 0.83 + DSC defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.87

DSC attack 0.67 + Douanes defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Douanes scores more
34%
level
34%
DSC scores more
32%

Douanes at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Douanes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Douanes vs DSC

Douanes and DSC drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on December 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal De Ndiarème in Dakar.