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Douanes vs CR Belouizdad — CAF Champions League 2019

Douanes
Douanes
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CR Belouizdad
CR Belouizdad
9/14/2024CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 2nd Preliminary RoundStade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Douanes35%
×Draw40%
CR Belouizdad26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Douanes
0.73
CR Belouizdad
0.59

Douanes creates 24% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 26 away

creates per match

Douanes
0.33
CR Belouizdad
0.85

allows per match

Douanes
0.33
CR Belouizdad
1.12

finishing

Douanes+0.00on par
CR Belouizdad+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Under
  • Under85
  • Over15

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

77%No
  • No77
  • Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Douanes ↓

CR Belouizdad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–027%
0–116%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (27%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
73%27%1.5
38%62%2.5
15%85%3.5
5%95%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Douanes or draw
74%
Douanes or CR Belouizdad
60%
Draw or CR Belouizdad
65%

Winning margin

Douanes wins by 2+
11%
CR Belouizdad wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Douanes 1+ goals
52%
Douanes 2+ goals
17%
Douanes 3+ goals
4%
CR Belouizdad 1+ goals
45%
CR Belouizdad 2+ goals
12%
CR Belouizdad 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Douanes (draw refunded)
57%
CR Belouizdad (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Douanes at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

CR Belouizdad away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Douanes attack 0.33 + CR Belouizdad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.73

CR Belouizdad attack 0.85 + Douanes defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Douanes scores more
35%
level
40%
CR Belouizdad scores more
26%

Douanes at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Douanes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Douanes vs CR Belouizdad

Douanes beat CR Belouizdad 1-0 in CAF Champions League on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Konaté in Bamako.