Douanes 1–0 ASEC Ndiambour: Result & Stats

Douanes

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

ASEC Ndiambour

6/11/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 26Stade Municipal De Ndiarème

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Douanes44%

×Draw32%

ASEC Ndiambour24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DouanesExpected goals in this matchASEC Ndiambour

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.71

Douanes

1.08

ASEC Ndiambour

0.71

Douanes creates 52% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 32 away

0.83

creates per match

0.44

0.98

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Douanes

0.83

ASEC Ndiambour

0.44

allows per match

Douanes

0.98

ASEC Ndiambour

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Douanes+0.00on par

ASEC Ndiambour+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Douanes ↓

ASEC Ndiambour →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Douanes or draw

76%

Douanes or ASEC Ndiambour

68%

Draw or ASEC Ndiambour

56%

Winning margin

Douanes wins by 2+

18%

ASEC Ndiambour wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Douanes 1+ goals

66%

Douanes 2+ goals

29%

Douanes 3+ goals

10%

ASEC Ndiambour 1+ goals

51%

ASEC Ndiambour 2+ goals

16%

ASEC Ndiambour 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Douanes (draw refunded)

65%

ASEC Ndiambour (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Douanes at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

ASEC Ndiambour away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Douanes attack 0.83 + ASEC Ndiambour defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.08

ASEC Ndiambour attack 0.44 + Douanes defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Douanes scores more

44%

level

32%

ASEC Ndiambour scores more

24%

Douanes at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Douanes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff