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Dothan United vs Tennessee — USL League Two 2026

Dothan United
Dothan United
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tennessee
Tennessee
6/19/2025USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 13Rip Hewes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dothan United59%
×Draw24%
Tennessee17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dothan United
1.68
Tennessee
0.79

Dothan United creates 113% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 6 away

creates per match

Dothan United
2.35
Tennessee
1.00

allows per match

Dothan United
0.59
Tennessee
1.00

finishing

Dothan United+0.00on par
Tennessee+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dothan United ↓

Tennessee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dothan United or draw
83%
Dothan United or Tennessee
76%
Draw or Tennessee
41%

Winning margin

Dothan United wins by 2+
33%
Tennessee wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dothan United 1+ goals
81%
Dothan United 2+ goals
50%
Dothan United 3+ goals
24%
Tennessee 1+ goals
55%
Tennessee 2+ goals
19%
Tennessee 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dothan United (draw refunded)
77%
Tennessee (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dothan United at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Tennessee away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dothan United attack 2.35 + Tennessee defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.68

Tennessee attack 1.00 + Dothan United defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dothan United scores more
59%
level
24%
Tennessee scores more
17%

Dothan United at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dothan United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Dothan United 3–0 Tennessee

Dothan United beat Tennessee 3-0 in USL League Two on June 19, 2025.

The match was played at Rip Hewes Stadium in Dothan, Alabama.