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Dothan United vs Fort Lauderdale United — USL League Two 2026

Dothan United
Dothan United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Fort Lauderdale United
Fort Lauderdale United
S. Hoyos 20', 16'
M. Appiah 65'
7/25/2025USL League TwoUSL League Two · Conference - FinalsVirtue Field at Archie Post Athletic Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dothan United62%
×Draw21%
Fort Lauderdale United17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dothan United
2.02
Fort Lauderdale United
0.97

Dothan United creates 108% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dothan United
2.67
Fort Lauderdale United
1.50

allows per match

Dothan United
0.44
Fort Lauderdale United
1.38

finishing

Dothan United+0.00on par
Fort Lauderdale United+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dothan United ↓

Fort Lauderdale United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dothan United or draw
83%
Dothan United or Fort Lauderdale United
79%
Draw or Fort Lauderdale United
38%

Winning margin

Dothan United wins by 2+
37%
Fort Lauderdale United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dothan United 1+ goals
87%
Dothan United 2+ goals
60%
Dothan United 3+ goals
33%
Fort Lauderdale United 1+ goals
62%
Fort Lauderdale United 2+ goals
25%
Fort Lauderdale United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dothan United (draw refunded)
78%
Fort Lauderdale United (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dothan United at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.44 · 9 matches

Fort Lauderdale United away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dothan United attack 2.67 + Fort Lauderdale United defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.02

Fort Lauderdale United attack 1.50 + Dothan United defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dothan United scores more
62%
level
21%
Fort Lauderdale United scores more
17%

Dothan United at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dothan United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
S. Hoyos
20'
S. Hoyos
65'
M. Appiah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dothan United vs Fort Lauderdale United

Dothan United beat Fort Lauderdale United 2-1 in USL League Two on July 25, 2025.

Goals: S. Hoyos (16', 20'), M. Appiah (65').

The match was played at Virtue Field at Archie Post Athletic Complex in Burlington, Vermont.