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Dostlik vs Mash'al — Pro League A 2026

Dostlik
Dostlik
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Mash'al
Mash'al
9/24/2024Pro League APro League A · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dostlik22%
×Draw27%
Mash'al51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dostlik
0.82
Mash'al
1.40

Mash'al creates 71% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dostlik
0.93
Mash'al
1.00

allows per match

Dostlik
1.79
Mash'al
0.71

finishing

Dostlik+0.00on par
Mash'al+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dostlik ↓

Mash'al →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dostlik or draw
49%
Dostlik or Mash'al
73%
Draw or Mash'al
78%

Winning margin

Dostlik wins by 2+
7%
Mash'al wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Dostlik 1+ goals
56%
Dostlik 2+ goals
20%
Dostlik 3+ goals
5%
Mash'al 1+ goals
75%
Mash'al 2+ goals
41%
Mash'al 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Dostlik (draw refunded)
30%
Mash'al (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dostlik at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

Mash'al away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dostlik attack 0.93 + Mash'al defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.82

Mash'al attack 1.00 + Dostlik defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dostlik scores more
22%
level
27%
Mash'al scores more
51%

Mash'al at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mash'al will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League A: Dostlik 1–2 Mash'al

Mash'al beat Dostlik 2-1 in Pro League A on September 24, 2024.