Dostlik 0–1 Kokand-1912: Result & Stats

Dostlik

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kokand-1912

11/21/2024

Pro League A · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dostlik20%

×Draw28%

Kokand-191252%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DostlikExpected goals in this matchKokand-1912

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.75

1.40

Dostlik

0.75

Kokand-1912

1.40

Kokand-1912 creates 87% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

0.93

creates per match

1.00

1.79

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Dostlik

0.93

Kokand-1912

1.00

allows per match

Dostlik

1.79

Kokand-1912

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dostlik+0.00on par

Kokand-1912+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dostlik ↓

Kokand-1912 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–116%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dostlik or draw

48%

Dostlik or Kokand-1912

72%

Draw or Kokand-1912

80%

Winning margin

Dostlik wins by 2+

6%

Kokand-1912 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Dostlik 1+ goals

53%

Dostlik 2+ goals

17%

Dostlik 3+ goals

4%

Kokand-1912 1+ goals

75%

Kokand-1912 2+ goals

41%

Kokand-1912 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dostlik (draw refunded)

28%

Kokand-1912 (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dostlik at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

Kokand-1912 away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dostlik attack 0.93 + Kokand-1912 defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.75

Kokand-1912 attack 1.00 + Dostlik defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dostlik scores more

20%

level

28%

Kokand-1912 scores more

52%

Kokand-1912 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kokand-1912 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff