Dos Hermanas 2–0 Utrera: Result & Stats

Dos Hermanas

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Utrera

9/21/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dos Hermanas55%

×Draw23%

Utrera22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dos HermanasExpected goals in this matchUtrera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.04

Dos Hermanas

1.79

Utrera

1.04

Dos Hermanas creates 72% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 96 away

2.35

creates per match

1.32

0.76

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Dos Hermanas

2.35

Utrera

1.32

allows per match

Dos Hermanas

0.76

Utrera

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dos Hermanas+0.00on par

Utrera+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dos Hermanas ↓

Utrera →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dos Hermanas or draw

78%

Dos Hermanas or Utrera

77%

Draw or Utrera

45%

Winning margin

Dos Hermanas wins by 2+

31%

Utrera wins by 2+

Team goals

Dos Hermanas 1+ goals

83%

Dos Hermanas 2+ goals

53%

Dos Hermanas 3+ goals

26%

Utrera 1+ goals

65%

Utrera 2+ goals

28%

Utrera 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Dos Hermanas (draw refunded)

71%

Utrera (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dos Hermanas at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Utrera away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.23 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dos Hermanas attack 2.35 + Utrera defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.79

Utrera attack 1.32 + Dos Hermanas defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dos Hermanas scores more

55%

level

23%

Utrera scores more

22%

Dos Hermanas at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Dos Hermanas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff